I truly believe few people would argue the observation that in the last three decades oligarchs have become kind of ’satellites’ of Ukraine. They are not only accepted by politicians, but adored by them. Ukrainian MPs have always strived to worm themselves into the confidence of certain oligarchs, because they were known as ’kingmakers’. Tycoons are also accepted by the Ukrainian society, although they are considered as an independent entity. In addition, the oligarchs are accepted by foreign investors as well who realized that reaching to the Ukrainian markets can be successful only with the intermediation of certain magnates of industry.
As for the oligarchy, as a socio-economic formation, Russia should be mentioned not only because it has world-famous oligarchs, but because the Kremlin, breaking new ground, years ago made the skeleton pact on relations between oligarchs and the state (i.e. brought the most potent Russian businessmen under regulation), introducing the archetypes of ’pro Kremlin’ and ’hostile’ oligarchs, later placing ’friends’ into ’reserve battle position’, serving the Kremlin’s interests both in and outside Russia.
It is beyond question from where Ukraine’s president Zelenskiy took the scheme for the law on oligarchs. The question is what the leading motive of his actions is? I am not aware of a clear response, but I am convinced, it is not the kind of prevention which is repeated all day long by the state media (saying the oligarchs should voluntarily give up the ’problematic’ assets of their properties, because of which they can be listed as oligarchs). Under the given circumstances, I am most concerned about question of what the next and co-ordinated step of the oligarchs will be following such attacks. And I do not mean their alleged efforts to get rid of the problematic pieces of their wealth just to avoid the negative stamp.
In an ideal country, Zelensky’s law on oligarchs could even bring certain results, e.g. some tycoons could be persuaded that after closing their offshore companies, they should bring their money home and after paying inland revenues the Ukrainian economy would be whiter and stronger. But in Ukraine’s reality which is far from ideal, one particular aspect should be taken into account. This aspect is of great importance, namely the fact that calling Ukraine’s oligarchs Ukrainian ones is certainly an overstatement. The vast majority of them come from the Southeast of Ukraine, Russians by nationality, and most of them are citizens of the Russian Federation as well, who hide documents from different countries in their safes, including passports of Russia, Israel or any other foreign countries. We are talking about individuals who control the entire energy market and complete industrial fields of Ukraine. If they feel at a standstill, they will certainly not hesitate to make the circumstances for Ukraine even more difficult than Gazprom did.
It is less relevant that Petro Poroshenko as part of his own ’deoligarchisation’ allegedly sold his TV channel and started to worry about the family’s chocolate business (Roshen). The shares in media outlets of Ihor Kolomoysky who had financed presidential campaign of Zelenskiy are also less important from the point of view I want to draw your attention to. What is of great importance is the stakes of Rinat Akhmetov, Dmytro Firtash and others in energy grid companies, thermal and other power plants, district-heating giants, electric energy market, coal-mines, etc.
Recently the President has been particularly busy with the new law on oligarchs. In the autumn of 2021, he worried himself grey, as he showed us on a funny photo. This is not surprising! It is the fourth wave of coronavirus pandemic; Russia concentrated its troops near the border with Ukraine, which apparently looks like a real military operation. Struggle with oligarchs, in winter-time, in gas shortage. Then he has to get acquainted with five new ministers in the government, including new individuals responsible for defense issues and for reintegration of the temporarily occupied territories… Uhhh! Lots of challenging tasks, indeed.
And now let’s linger on this last topic. Though the issue of the oligarchs and the appointment of new cabinet members is apparently not linked with each other, it is just an illusion. It is hard to believe that Ukraine has suddenly changed, and bypassing the old system, this time the last word concerning the recent appointments was not expressed by tycoons. Promoting persuasive small figures such as the new Minister of Defence Oleksiy Reznikov who will do the dirty job and will represent their interests is a well-proven method of the oligarchs. It is not clear yet to me how exactly Vice-Prime Minister — Minister for Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories Irina Vereshchuk whishes to apply the widely expressed ’soft power’ in her everyday routine but I cannot wait to find it out. Nevertheless I find it an interesting coincidence that the primacy of Vereshchuk’s soft power accords well together with those pieces of unsettling military intelligence data which report about a large-scale Russian military build-up on the Ukrainian border. Dear Irina Andreevna, it seems to me that so called psy ops as military operations go hand in hand with your ministerial credo (i.e. soft power). Well-done!
As far as I can judge it, recent news about Russian military moves are perfectly able to distract public attention from more serious and real events such as the dismissal of five ministers. This kind of news serves one purpose, namely that Ukrainians were interested not in governmental changes, or rather the reasons which led to the dismissals or how many people infected and die from COVID-19 every day, not mention how harmful it would be for Ukrainians to think about how they will be able to pay the bills for heating.
Ideally, the Ukrainian gas, electricity or even coal supply must not be allowed to be dependent on Russia or oligarchs. But after all, the situation is exactly like this, and for that very reason political analysts should calculate upon risks of Zelensky’s law on oligarchs. The implementation of the law may result further negative changes which may be followed by unpredictable consequences. I expect that after driving the oligarchs into a corner, we shall not have to wait long for their response.
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