Concerning the issue of Russia-related energy wars, we should go back to the collapse of the USSR. After the Soviet state ceased to exist, its energy sector turned into a pillage, for which both the KGB elite and the new business or oligarchic elite claimed its share of. After ten years of fighting with each other, the situation was brought to a new zero line in the early 2000s when tycoons like Mikhail Khodorkovsky were excluded from the energy sector, where a strict state control begin to dominate afterwards. All this was part of Operation Energy, launched by the former elite of the KGB in order to regain control over the energy resources. In short, everything was about money flowing from the energy resources.
If we want to paint a broader picture of the processes in the Russian energy sector at the turn of the millennium, one particular aspect should be mentioned, namely that the events in Russia in 2003–2004, especially with regard to Operation Energy, were preceded by Khodorkovsky’s active efforts to establish contacts with certain U.S. actors, including ór ExxonMobil, in order to persuade them to become majority shareholders of his energy company YukosSibneft. Even a philanthropic organization was launched by Khodorkovsky in America called Open Russia, the board of which was chaired by an old-timer diplomat, Henry Kissinger. In addition, it was Khodorkovsky who sent the very first crude shipments directly to the United States at the beginning of the millennium. The then Russian leadership (the same Putin who still runs Russia today) was not against such supplies, because the political elite were also interested in building an energy bridge between Russia and the U.S. They had their own ideas, even a concept in the field of energy, and, the American, of course, also had their own visions.
When in 2004 the Russian energy giant Gazprom cut gas supplies to Belarus (and consequently also to Lithuania and Poland), it was already part of the Kremlin’s well-planned energy concept, which can be simply called ’energy as weapon’. If you do not act as expected and what was agreed with us, you will no longer receive gas. This was a very clear signal that the Kremlin has sent several times to various countries over the past decades, when energy, obviously, became a tool that was used to promote the implementation of Russia’s foreign policy goals.
In addition to the above mentioned events in the Russian energy sector at the beginning of the new millennium, and the blocking of gas supplies to Belarus in 2004, the memorable gas wars of 2006 and 2009 between Russia and Ukraine also served as preliminary steps to the current military invasion of Ukraine. The last incident that led to the war was the uncertain delay in the starting of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, that’s why I consider it the actual direct cause of the war.
It is well known that Ukraine has always been in the forefront of various Russian concepts, both in the field of political wishful thinking and, in more practical energy-related plans. The fact that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline could not be put into operation according to the initial deadlines shocked the Kremlin, which wanted to fulfil its dreams in Ukraine with the help of this particular pipeline.
As a result of the repeated conflicts of the last three decades’, the West has learned at least one lesson from the many experiences it has obtained in connection with Russia, namely that Russia lives on income from energy exports. In this regard, oil and gas represent the main arteries of the country’s body — no exports, no welfare. Amid Russia’s war in Ukraine, in 2022, when there is nothing left for accident, the main idea of the EU’s 6th sanction package against Russia is based on the same old general recognition.
At this point we have reached the pith and marrow of this blog post and I have to explain what I mean by ’Special Operation Energy 2.0’ as it can be read in the title.
In addition to Europe’s ambitious desire to free itself from the energy dependency on Russia, one more thing should be mentioned as the driving force behind the overall oil (and gas) embargo, and this is associated not only with solid business interests of Europe but also with the energy giants of the United States, which on the one part, would be more than happy to replace the Russians in the energy supply of Europe, and, on the other part, to enter into the management of the Russian gas and oil companies, in order to seize significant stakes in them. This last issue has always been an important business aim of certain American companies, and, with the help of politics, this goal now seems to be very close. After the codename of the long-ago KGB operation, the process that is going on right now with the participation of Europe and America, can be called Operation Energy 2.0, having no less goal than replacing Russia in European energy market, penetrating Russia’s arteries and getting hold of Russian natural resources.
Besides American giants and certain European actors, some well-known companies from the Middle East may also be involved in the re-division of the European market.
There is one more issue I would like to mention in connection with the modern special Operation Energy, namely that this is threatening with energy shortage, skyrocketing prices and political disagreement between EU member states which can lead to an even more divided Europe. A rift between the member states can already be seen in connection with the 6th sanctions package, when a small group of less prosperous member states which has not yet lost their common sense in the field of energy security are opposed to those who are ready to pay extra costs due to fortified diversification and, take extra risks regarding the security of supply.
Up to now, I was mostly worried about the future energy supply of Ukraine. From now on, as a result of Operation Energy 2.0, I am concerned about the security of supplies to Europe, as well as my own supply of gas and gasoline. We will soon see how much will fuel cost at European filling stations due to the 6th sanctions package. Next time, I will be back with this topic.
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