Showing absolutely no intention to stop the endless days of war in Ukraine, Russian president Vladimir Putin may be intending to normalize wartime for the Russian people -, a well-known Russian historian said in the summer of 2022.
Based on this position, it is clear that Russia plays for time. Except for some countries, Europe has become sick and tired of the war. Such a change in public mood is noticeable far and near — enthusiasm is slowly but surely being replaced by a kind of apathy which is obviously favorable for Russia. Time serves Russia’s interests: if Russia has enough time, it will be able to achieve its communication goals which support military operations to a much greater extent than you can imagine.
To achieve its goals, Russia focuses on inciting discord between Ukraine and its supporters. One of the most obvious manifestations of this intention was Dmitry Medvedev’s scandalous Facebook post, in July. In this article, the Russian politician shared his opinion about the future of Ukraine. He attached a map to the post, showing Ukraine as a divided state — some territories would go to Russia, others to Poland, Romania and Hungary. What can be said about it? Parcelling of Ukraine might be the cherished dream of some Polish, Romanian and Hungarian extremists but the mentioned member states of the European Union, would obviously not want to engage in war with Ukraine for their historical lands. With this scandalous Facebook post, Medvedev and the Russian propaganda machine wanted to send a message to both the Russian voters and Kyiv that, it is not only Russia who is knocking at the doors, but there are some other countries which waiting for their own parts. With the help of such messages, the Kremlin seeks to realize its important communication goal, namely to distance Ukraine from its partners.
In addition to issues related to the territorial integrity of Ukraine, Russia uses another topic to drive a wedge between the EU member states, namely the energy weapon. In this game Moscow is able to turn one member state against another or one member state against the whole European community. Russia has got at least one more month to play this game on the level of words, i.e. to use energy as a communication weapon. So far this represents a relatively small risk to the EU. But the European Union should take into account that at the very moment of the first minuses the Russian communication weapon can be activated and turned into a real energy weapon, and this will already be a hazardous adventure for several European governments.
One additional sentence should be added to the above thoughts. While the Russian propaganda uses various communication strategies, majority of which are based on blackmail, influence and intimidation, Russian president Vladimir Putin has got his own communication panel. His words are repeated by the media all the time, saying that ’the situation in the world is dynamically changing, and the outlines of a multipolar world order are taking shape.’
After some of the main elements of Russian communication, let’s see what messages Europe (the West) sends to Russia and its own community.
On the one hand, the West keeps repeating that Ukraine can win the war and, on the other hand, Europe can live without Russian oil and gas. (I hope that you can see that the latter issue is nothing more than a defensive attitude: the EU can do nothing else but to say exactly that, with regard to the fact that Europe has never experienced life without Russian energy resources…)
Besides criticism, it should be admitted that, by the summer of 2022, in the field of communication, the Western states seem to balance their long-term handicap to the Russian propaganda. The West was able to identify and then successfully attack Russia’s sore spots.
Among the numerous Western measures it is worth mentioning the removal of certain Russian propagandistic contents from the Youtube which threatens with extreme narrowing of Russian communication channels.
Removal (or dismantling or destruction) of Soviet military monuments can also be mentioned as another vulnerable spot for Russia. With the demolition of Soviet-era monuments, the West attacks an 80-year-old Russian communication panel about the legendary and victorious Red Army — a symbol of victory over Nazi Germany, and the liberators of Europe. The removal or demolition of Soviet monuments signifies that Russia’s glory is fading, Moscow is losing its strength — that is why, I think, this is the very Western measure which inspires Russia the most to strain every nerve to fight. In response to the removal of a WWII Soviet memorial, Russian hacker group Killnet launched an extensive cyberattack against Estonia in August. The same hacker group claimed responsibility for massive cyberattacks in Lithuania in June, shortly after a Soviet memorial was moved from its original place.
It must be admitted that travel restrictions for ordinary Russian citizens are also a very effective method to suggest that Moscow is unable to do anything against the West — once again the message says that ’Russia is weak’. (It should be noted that many countries use this issue only as a communication tool, but have no real intentions to introduce such travel restrictions at all.)
And while Putin is talking about the contours of a multipolar world, U.S. President Joe Biden and his entire administration tries to do their best to strengthen the unipolar world order, as the example of Taiwan clearly demonstrates.
As you can see, nowadays, both in Russia and in the West, everything is based on communication strategies. I have brought several examples above, from which it is clear that most communication strategies are directed against something, and not as support for a more important goal. From time to time, both sides offer a wide range of misinformation, and practically it is inevitable that sometimes we get lost in provocations (such as apocalyptic predictions about the Zaporizhzhya NPP or the grain shortage in the world). In such cases, it should always be kept in mind that both sides give different shades to the same topic, because they use these issues for communication and propaganda purposes to achieve their own goals.
It is still untimely to say how the war in Ukraine will end, but one thing is sure: both Russia and the West are developing new tactics, opening new platforms, but in addition to modern methods and channels, they also old proven methods of communication to achieve victory. And, for the first time in history, the outcome of the war may depend on how effectively public mood can be influenced in social networks, on video hosting sites and other platforms of the e-world.
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