Since by now every single word of his has been proved to be true, let me cite Samuel P. Huntington’s The Clash Of Civilizations And The Remaking Of The World Order (1996) as an introduction. Referring to the results of the 1994 presidential elections in Ukraine (when Leonid Kuchma, with his campaign to restore the economic relations with Russia won against Leonid Kravtschuk who received strong support from the Southeast of Ukraine, but suffered a huge defeat in the Western regions) the author presented three options for the possible development of Russian-Ukrainian relations. In Chapter 7 (Russia And Its Near Abroad) he says that,
’(…) The relations between Ukraine and Russia could develop in one of three ways.
1 In the early 1990s critically important issues existed between the two countries, concerning nuclear weapons, Crimea, the rights of Russians in Ukraine, the Black See Fleet, and economic relations. Many people thought armed conflict was likely, which led some Western analysts to argue that the West should support Ukraine’s having a nuclear arsenal to deter Russian aggression. If civilization is what counts, however, violence between Ukrainians and Russians is unlikely. These are two Slavic, primarily Orthodox peoples who have had close relationships for centuries and between whom intermarriage is common. Despite highly contentious issues and the pressure of extreme nationalists on both sides, the leaders of both countries worked hard and largely successfully to moderate their disputes. The election of an explicitly Russian-oriented president in Ukraine in mid-1994 further reduced the probability of exacerbated conflict between the two countries.’
2 (…) ’A second and somewhat more likely possibility is that Ukraine could split along its fault line into two separate entities, the eastern of which would merge with Russia. The issue of secession first came up with respect to Crimea.’ (…) ’Such a (…) Western-oriented Ukraine, however, would only be viable if it had strong and effective Western support. Such support is, in turn, likely to be forthcoming only if relations between the West and Russia deteriorated seriously and came to resemble those of the Cold War.
3 The third and more likely scenario is that Ukraine will remain united, remain cleft, remain independent, and generally cooperate closely with Russia.’
I am sure that the quoted sentences will convince everyone of Huntington’s professionalism. Although his vision was quite detailed and accurate, he mistakenly underestimated the likelihood of a military conflict between Russia and Ukraine due to some basic patterns, including cultural similarities. There are two other aspects I would like to emphasize. The first one is that a Russian-oriented president can clearly reduce the probability of military conflicts. My second remark refers to the circumstances in which the West would provide essential support to Ukraine — you do not need to be a foreign policy expert to perceive that the American author’s lines exactly describe the existent situation.
And, finally, about what gives me the essence of the above-mentioned sentences of ’The Clash Of Civilizations’ — ’If civilization is what counts, however, violence between Ukrainians and Russians is unlikely.’ For me, this means that common civilization has ceased to be a factor that has any significance counts and which should be taken into account when it comes to war. For me, who was born and grown up as a Russian-speaker in Ukraine, this is a real tragedy.
Based on how the fights are developing, I realized that it would be a mistake to believe that the present war in Ukraine due to which already more than four million people had to flee from Ukraine is really connected with Ukraine. Similarly, it is a mistake to think that the struggle in which Ukrainians are waging a grim patriotic war against Russian invaders is actually going on for Ukraine. Such a narrative exists exclusively in the image videos of Ukraine’s president.
In fact, despite the untold suffering and killing of many thousands, Ukraine is nothing else but a minor character in this war (which has changed the lives of millions) both as a political actor and a country which is hit by the military conflict. By the way, I have the same thoughts regarding the European Union, although, compared to Ukraine it has to cope with much smaller challenges, mainly in the field of refugee crisis and, in connection with energy supply issues.
Repeatedly evoking Zbygniew Brzezinski in my blog, I believe, that this war in fact is between the United States and Russia which are clashing on a geopolitical chess-board. In this battle, Ukraine is nothing else than a platform and a tool for both great powers. All this is clearly seen in the way Russia is waging this war, as well as in the constant warmongering of the U.S. independently or through their European allies to sustain the armed resistance in Ukraine, sending of weapon supplies instead of encouraging Kyiv to evacuate the civilians from the war-worn territories.
The suffering of Ukraine does not matter for the United States, as they are disinterested in Europe’s problems as well. Americans are watching a black and white movie at a distance of several thousands kilometers and, in this movie Ukraine is presented as snow-white, while Russia is painted in shades of evil black. The White House is not only a simple spectator of this movie, but it is also its director, producer, and also distributor. Washington has everything in its hands to show this movie to the world the way it wants.
Finally, let’s not forget that the fact that Russia will attack Ukraine has not been a secret for the U.S. for a long time, consequently, it was known well in advance by the Kyiv administration as well. At this point, my own values make me ask the question: if Zelenskiy knew for sure that the Russians would invade Ukraine and also had an idea about the timing of the invasion, why did he tell the puplic the opposite up to the final days? Why did not he warn the population about the impending threat, why did he refuse to fulfil his duty to urge people to leave the unsafe regions? By doing so, he obviously could have saved the peaceful inhabitants of Harkiv, Kherson, and Mariupol from suffering.
There is only one answer to these questions — Ukraine’s president acted so because he received a clear order to do so from the American producer of the black and white movie.
To be continued in the next blog post.
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