High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell has expressed he supported the establishment of an indicative timeframe for the accession of new members to the EU. ’Ukraine should become a member of the EU (…). I think the war in Ukraine has had the side effect of accelerating the enlargement process, which is clearly a merit-based process: a candidate state will become a member when it fulfils all the conditions. But at the same time, I think it would be good to set a political goal, a horizon, to give the political process a boost’, he said.
Three days earlier, the President of the European Council Charles Michel said that the European Union should be ready to accept new member states by 2030. The European Commission, however, did not support the call to prepare for EU enlargement by a specific year. Some member states are calling for full compliance with the accession criteria, including the protection of the rights of national minorities which is one of the main values for the EU – without this, Ukraine will not be able to become a full member of the EU. It should be added that some Western European member states would prefer to ignore these shortcomings and reward Kyiv with full membership as soon as possible.
As for Ukraine’s future NATO membership, it became clear in the Vilnius Summit that, despite the continued support of Ukraine by NATO, its membership is not yet on the horizon which was a rather painful realisation for Kyiv. To ease Ukraine’s disappointment, an ironic comment was often quoted in NATO that time saying that ’we must avoid Ukraine membership becoming a horizon – the more you walk towards, the farther it is.’
As you can see, the magic word ’horizon’ has been mentioned a lot lately in the context of Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration. What does the word ’horizon’ mean in this case? It means that a clear timeline and action plan for Ukraine’s accession to both the EU and NATO is necessary.
In connection with the word ’horizon’ I cannot help but recall an old story. ’Horizon’ was the codename of an influence operation launched by the Romanian intelligence service in 1972 to gain greater acceptance for communist Romania in the West. Thanks to Operation Horizon, the brutal Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu was accepted in the West as a leader independent of Moscow, and Romania was provided with Western money and technology. However, Soviet influence was of course still present in Romania, so these ’horizons’ were actually ’Red Horizons’, as a former high-ranking Romanian official who defected to the US in the 1970s described it perfectly.
Is there an influence operation similar to the old Romanian dossier codename ’Horizon’ currently being conducted by the Ukrainian intelligence? There is no doubt at all that a modern Ukrainian version of this operation exists.
Ironically, the main objectives of the current Ukrainian psychological operation are probably the same as those of the former Romanian one, namely:
- to convince the West by any means, including special means and methods, that the Kyiv authorities are capable not only of effective governance in wartime conditions, but also of guiding Ukraine in a new direction, along the path of Euro-Atlantic integration,
- to increase the acceptance of the Kyiv regime in the West,
- to persuade the West that the Kyiv authorities are ready and able to fight not only Russia but also corruption,
- to persuade the West that the Kyiv administration completely rejects corruption in its own structures.
In addition to President Zelenskyy, players such as the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak, and the new Minister of Defence, Rustem Umierov, are involved in achieving the abovementioned main goals. Ukrainian special services, of course, actively support the intense lobbying of politicians.
The ongoing influence operation can be considered successful if
Ukraine’s political leaders are considered respectable partners in the West,
Western partners continue to provide Ukraine with funds and military equipment,
statements like ’Ukraine should become a member of the EU / NATO’ appear.
So, nothing is new under the sun.
The question is why does the West believe that the Kyiv regime is telling the truth when it comes to negotiations. As far as influence or psychological operations are concerned, the main component of them is obviously not the truth.
It is hard to understand and painful to see how Western European leaders let themselves be manipulated.
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