As Long As Needed…?

From the point of view of Ukraine, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could not have come at a worse time. For Russia, on the contrary, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could not have come at a more appropriate time. Nevertheless, I do not advice to draw any far-reaching conclusions from these two statements.

Let’s focus on the facts.

Given the stagnating Ukrainian counter-offensive, a growing ’Ukraine fatigue’ in Europe and nasty debates in the U.S. Congress on the issue of military assistance to Ukraine, the latest developments in Israel constitutes a lethal threat to Kyiv for a number of reasons.

– Let’s start with the most obvious reason, which is that the world public attention is now divided between two conflicts, the Russian-Ukrainian and the Israeli-Palestinian war. International news is no longer exclusively devoted to Ukraine, suffering from Russian attacks. In addition, President Zelenskiy who put his military brand on a year and a half ago looks a bit ridiculous compared to the real military leaders who appear on TV screens when it comes to Israel.

– For most Europeans it has just become crystal clear that Russia’s war in Ukraine is a territorially relatively limited conflict. In the context of the Israeli-Palestinian war, on the contrary, the conflict threatens to spill over to other states, setting the whole Middle East on fire, moreover, Europe may be hit by terrorists’ attacks. As for the predicted wave of terror, it has already reached Europe. I am afraid that what is going on today is just the beginning. Unlike the conflict in Israel, the war in Ukraine, despite the statements of some countries, is unlikely to extend.

– The Jewish state, just like Ukraine, must fight for its existence and survival. In political terms, this struggle cannot be fought and also cannot be stopped without the mediation and assistance of the great powers, primarily the United States, adding that Russia is still an important player in this regard. In other words, Washington and Moscow are likely to sit down at the negotiating table to resolve the conflict in Israel – which will be a defeat for Kyiv: sooner or later the issue of Ukraine will also appear on the agenda at the same negotiating table.

-The territory of Israel is very small compared to the territory of Ukraine, and its population is no match for Ukraine’s, but the financial and military support provided to Israel is extremely expensive. The United States and its European partners cannot afford to support two non-NATO foreign stations in their struggle until victory, or, ’as long as needed’, as the fancy slogan says.

– The idea of creating an Israeli-type security system has been an important element of the security policy concepts for a future Ukraine (without NATO membership, the U.S. will ensure Ukraine’s security with the help of partners). This plan has certainly melted into thin air with the current Israeli-Palestinian war, since the prototype, the Israeli-type security system itself has come to nothing. Despite Joe Biden’s trip to Israel, the Jewish state now stands alone facing the whole Arab world. It is not only the Israeli-type security structure that has failed – it is also a total failure of American efforts in the Middle East. To restore its former reputation, Washington must focus its attention on the Middle East, including diplomacy, military aspects, humanitarian aid, and so on.

– European countries are facing an enormous challenge. After a relatively quiet period without terror attacks, the dark cloud of terrorism is once again hanging over Europe. To cope with this security threat, Brussels and the individual EU member states with significant diasporas of Arab origin, must invest huge financial resources in the fight against terrorism, police cooperation, border management. Constant and vigilant monitoring of both migrants’ flows and migrants’ communities will become a daily and very expensive duty of the European intelligence services. It should be noted that European politicians are likely to focus on their own voters – ensuring the safety of their own citizens will be their top priority.

Given all these processes, the momentum of supporting Ukraine will gradually fade since there will be neither money nor political will to continue it.
After a while, the motto ’as long as needed’ will be remembered as just another meaningless political slogan, which was shortly replaced by another one, which emerged from a completely different political climate and which had to meet completely different political requirements.