While Kyiv is watching ’Ukraine fatigue’ spreading across Europe with growing concern, another potential source of danger was identified that could threaten the continuity of arms supplies to Ukraine and the external (European) support of the Ukrainian administration, namely that the so-called Ukraine card could be played with negative content during the upcoming elections in some EU member states. In this context, Slovakia and Poland should be mentioned in the first place.
Background:
– With the results of the elections held in Slovakia on 10 October it became clear that Slovakia’s new government will include parties that built their overall political careers on friendship with Moscow and overtly anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. ’Slovakia and the Slovak people have more important problems than Ukraine’, the winner of the elections Robert Fico declared. He also said that it was ’illusory’ to talk about Ukraine joining the EU at the moment. In addition, Fico is likely to review the policy of providing military assistance to Ukraine.
– During the pre-election campaign in Poland, the Morawiecki government was pushed to seemingly speak out against Ukraine, saying that Polish voters no longer support Ukraine as much as they previously did, so the government had no other choice but to reduce its support to Ukraine. The Polish government, which poured so much money into Ukraine, was ultimately rejected by the Polish voters for another four-year term in the 14 October elections. The incoming Polish government’s policy on Ukraine is not yet clear, but it is sure that there will be changes compared to the former position, and this could also lead to changes in the Baltic countries regarding the question of supporting Ukraine. This is interesting, adding that the Biden administration is not openly celebrating the fall of Poland’s right-wing government but in private, the president’s advisers are breathing a sigh of relief, as media reports indicate.
– Hungary is practically the only country in the EU that does not send military supplies to Ukraine, triggering Kyiv’s mistrust and suspicion. In addition, Budapest has argued for a settlement by negotiation since the beginning of the war, backing almost every existing peace plan. Of Hungary’s peace efforts, its joint activities with Pope Francis are worth stressing. Budapest has also recently expressed its support for the Chinese peace plan and is also ready to discuss the Ukrainian Peace Formula.
Kyiv’s main concern is that starting from Central Europe, including Slovakia, Hungary and Poland an ’anti-Ukrainian’ bloc could be formed in the EU which could later block both arms supplies and the flow of financial aid, not to mention the possibility that scepticism concerning Ukraine could spread from these countries to Western European member states, with the ultimate result that there would be a growing number of those who would try to persuade Kyiv to ceasefire and start peace talks, and Kyiv would no longer be so confident about its EU membership.
In connection with the present topic, the timing of the leak of an EU document that details the financial implications and consequences of a future Ukrainian integration cannot be ignored. According to preliminary calculations given in this document, Ukraine’s accession would mean that a number of member states would become net contributors, some would lose cohesion funds and the overall financial burden on each member state would increase.
To make EU citizens accept and even support EU enlargement with Ukraine under these conditions, a lot would have to be done at both national and EU level, which is one of the biggest challenges. The extra challenges associated with Ukraine’s accession are likely to cause significant tensions between EU members and increase the disagreements between them.
In these circumstances, both President Zelenskyy and his staff and the President of the European Commission were thunderstruck by the opinion of the former President of the Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, who said in an interview that it would be a huge mistake to let Ukraine into the EU. Kiev has worried about growing ’Ukraine fatigue’, but then came Mr Juncker, who shocked both Europe and Ukraine.
Former President of the European Commission believes that Ukraine does not yet meet the criteria for membership in the European Union because of heavy corruption.
’We should not make false promises to people in Ukraine who are suffering all by themselves. I am outraged with some voices in Europe trying to convince Ukrainians that they can become members of the EU immediately. This would not be good for the EU or Ukraine’, Jucker said in an interview adding that ’anyone who had any relationship with Ukraine knows that this is a country that is corrupt at all levels of society’. According to Juncker’s assessment, Ukraine is not ready to join the European Union. ’Despite efforts, Ukraine is not ready to join, it needs major internal reforms’, he said. However, the prospect of accession should be preserved for Ukraine, Juncker believes.
The thesis that Ukraine is corrupt is ’a famous Russian narrative’ which is used by Moscow to persuade Western countries to stop supporting Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, commenting on the words of Mr Juncker.
My opinion is completely different from that of Zelenskyy.
What is quoted above is the most honest opinion I have ever heard concerning Ukraine and its European membership expressed by a (former) European leader. At the same time I can also imagine how disappointing, even humiliating it was for Ursula von der Leyen to be confronted with such a sober stance, especially from someone who was famous not exactly for his sobriety during his term as President of the European Commission. In fact, it must have been very painful for Ms von der Leyen to get lessons from Mr Juncker of how to remain sober-minded and objective. As for Zelenskyy, he can take Juncker’s words as an unexpected cold shower. Not the most pleasant thing in life, but is actually very healthy.
Sources:
• https://www.politico.eu/article/jean-claude-juncker-ukraine-corruption-eu-accession/
• https://www.ft.com/content/a8834254-b8f9-4385-b043-04c2a7cd54c8
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