Background:
⦁ Earlier, the Polish government announced that Poland is likely to cut financial support for Ukrainian refugees.
⦁ Three EU countries – Poland, Slovakia and Hungary – introduced unilateral embargo on Ukrainian grain.
⦁ Due to this unilateral embargo, Ukraine applied to the World Trade Organisation for consultation. Kyiv said that Ukraine is also ready to introduce a ban on the import of certain goods from Poland, Slovakia and Hungary. In early October, Kyiv backed down from its earlier threat.
⦁ President Zelenskiy told the UN General Assembly on 19 September that he was alarmed to see ’some in Europe playing out solidarity in a political theatre ’by turning grain supplies into a thriller’, helping ’to set the stage for a Moscow actor’.
⦁ Zelenskiy was supposed to meet with Polish President Duda on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, but the planned meeting was cancelled.
⦁ A Polish government official suggested that Poland’s support for Ukraine may be reduced amid the crisis over Ukrainian agricultural imports, saying that the Polish government must take into account the interest of the Polish farmers. ’Ukraine’s actions make no impression on us but they do make a certain impression on Polish public opinion. The polls prove this, as well as the level of public support for further assistance to Ukraine’, he added. ’We would like to further support Ukraine, but we must have the support of the Polish people in this matter for that to be possible. Therefore, unless there is support from the Polish people, it will be challenging for us to continue to support Ukraine as we have done so far’, he said.
⦁ Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that Warsaw is now focused on rearming its own army, and therefor is not supplying its military aid to Ukraine.
⦁ Later the Polish government clarified this statement, saying that Poland is carrying out only pre-agreed deliveries of ammunition and weaponry.
Zelenskiy and Morawiecki in Kyiv
It seems to me that the recent developments in Ukrainian-Polish relations do not mean that relations between the two nations have in fact deteriorated. I am convinced that everything is connected with the elections in Poland. The Polish government makes every effort to remain in power, and the price of that may be a coalition government.
The reason for the current aggressive rhetoric is probably that certain part of the Polish electorate expects the government to take a tougher stance on its policy on Ukraine, both on grain exports and arms supplies, and the ruling Polish political forces have made a gesture to this group of voters by warning Ukraine to stop criticising the Poles and announcing cutting arms supplies.
All in all, in my assessment, the unshakeable Polish-Ukrainian friendship is still intact, and what has happened in recent weeks is nothing more than a political game, this time, with Zelenskiy in the role of a scapegoat. However, do not feel sorry for the Ukrainian president for so long: he knows that he can still count on Poland’s support, and if Morawiecki and his government remain in power, he will generously reward Zelenskiy for this little ’quarrel’ that the two of them have presented to us all, including the respected Polish voters.
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