The days between 12 and 18 February 2024 were not ordinary ones, that is for sure. This 7-day period included many momentous events and developments, such as the Munich Security Conference, the death of Alexei Navalniy and, the fall of Avdiivka.
Though President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described his participation in this year’s Munich Security Conference as very productive, according to Bloomberg, compared to the determination of previous meetings, this year’s Munich meeting was dominated by uncertainty and pessimism. Senior defence officials voiced their concerns about the US’s failure to deliver billions of dollars of funding for Ukraine.
It should be added that 19 February, Financial Times reported that Admiral Rob Bauer, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, has said that the West was ’too optimistic’ about the course of Russia’s war against Ukraine in 2023, adding that the West wrongly believed that ’if we give the Ukrainians the ammunition and training they need, they will win.’
Concerning the long-term security agreements signed with Germany and France, President Zelenskyy emphasised that, on the one part, these bilateral agreements are not an alternative to the US aid package which has yet to be approved, and, on the other hand, these decade-long security agreements do not mean that the war in Ukraine will go on for 10 years. According to media reports, Denmark and the Nordic countries want to joint the agreements on security guarantees for Ukraine as soon as possible.
As for Avdiivka, US President Joe Biden said he believes that Ukrainian forces were forced to withdraw from the town on 17 February because of a lack of ammunition caused by the dwindling ammunition stockpile. He stressed that this happened as a result of the inaction on behalf of the US Congress, leading to Russia’s first notable gains in months.
Avdiivka has been a symbol. A symbol of Ukrainian defense, which used to be Bakhmut a couple of months before. Despite the desperate efforts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Ukrainians finally were forced to withdraw from Avdiivka, leaving a key territory for Russia.
The US knew exactly that this would happen if Congress fails to pass another financial aid package for Ukraine. In military circles, the imminent fall of Avdiivka had long been known.
When will common sense return to Ukraine? With the fall of Avdiivka it should be clear for everyone that the US / Western countries are really ready to ’fight till the last Ukrainian’.
What matters is not the new defence agreements signed in Munich, but the fact that, from a military point of view, Russia seems unstoppable and, if the war continues it will claim the lives of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians.
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