How are Ukraine’s plans for the further course of the war and the start of the heating season in the country connected? The answer is simple: in both issues, Ukraine relies entirely on its Western supporters.
Russian missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure? No big deal, the West has agreed to cover the cost of rebuilding and send additional aid. Any efforts by Kyiv to reach a ceasefire and peace talks? Certainly no way as Western allies of Ukraine keep pushing Kyiv to continue the war. What about the casualties? The only thing the West can do in this respect is not to allow the exact number of Ukrainian casualties to be released, and it pays no attention to anything else. Recent developments show that the situation is really that simple.
According to reports, head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov believes Russia wants to win the war against Ukraine by the end of 2025 or early 2026, because it will face serious economic problems from summer 2025 onwards and will need to mobilise more troops. ’By their own calculations, unless they come out of this war considering themselves the victors, in the long term – within the next 30 years – the Russian Federation will lose the superpower status they aspire to.’, Budanov added. He also said that the issue of recruitment to the army is becoming increasingly acute in Russia.
It should be noted that the total number of Ukrainian and Russian military personnel who have been killed or injured since the start of the full-scale Russian aggression has reached approximately 1 million, The Wall Street Journal wrote in its recent report. According to WSJ, while the number of Ukrainian military casualties is about 80,000 killed and 400,000 injured, Western intelligence estimates of Russian losses vary, with some data suggesting nearly 200,000 dead and about 400,000 wounded. (The article notes that determining the exact number of casualties in the war is challenging because both Russia and Ukraine refuse to release official data, and sometimes publish figures that many find unreliable. Ukraine’s government, like that of Russia, keeps its war casualties secret. The number of civilian casualties remains unknown.) Exclusive | One Million Are Now Dead or Injured in the Russia-Ukraine War – WSJ
Russia is already preparing new missile and drone attacks on the energy system of Ukraine, Ukrainian PM Denys Shmyhal said in early September noting that Russia would continue its terrorist and genocidal policy. On 20 September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a staff meeting, when the participants discussed the level of engineering protection of energy facilities, the schedule for fortification construction, and the installation of electronic warfare and air defence systems, with a focus on Patriots, which Ukraine expects to receive in the near future.
’The European Union will provide €160 million to help Ukraine prepare for another winter amid Russian attacks on the country’s energy system’, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced during her latest official visit to Kyiv. ’This includes €60 million in humanitarian aid for shelters and heaters, for example, and it includes around €100 million for repair works and renewables. And these €100 million come from the proceeds of the immobilised Russian assets in the European Union,’ von der Leyen said in a briefing before the visit.
In an interview with Current Time TV channel, Mykhailo Podoliak, an adviser to the head of the Ukrainian President’s Office, said that freezing the war, declaring a ceasefire, or transferring territory to Russia is not part of Ukraine’s strategy to stop the war. Podoliak emphasised that Kyiv has only one official position: the war should conclude with Russia’s defeat.
On 20 September, at a joint press conference with Ursula von der Leyen, Zelenskyy said that he wants to discuss his so-called victory plan with Joe Biden. ’Decisions regarding the plan mostly depend on him. They depend on other allies too, but there are points that depend on positive will and support by the United States.’, the Ukrainian President explained.
However, as far as victory is concerned, it is worth looking at the situation realistically.
’Victory Day, how far from us it was!’, reads the lyrics of an old Russian wartime song. There is no better description of the situation on the battlefields these days, which reflects the enourmously difficult situation of both sides.
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