European citizens can only hope that they will not wake up one day to find that the big and influential members of NATO have decided to invite Ukraine to join the Alliance the very next day.
There has been a lot of news and information about Ukraine’s NATO membership in October – much more and more concrete than ever before.
One possible explanation for why this issue has become so high profile this October can be found in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s official visit to the US in September, which focused on the presentation of his Victory Plan, the first point of which calls for Ukraine’s immediate invitation to NATO.
Zelenskyy’s Victory Plan has failed to receive the anticipated enthusiasm in Washington, and Ukraine’s Western supporters, in general, have expressed scepticism concerning the plan, saying it contains nothing new and therefore cannot guarantee a breakthrough in the course of the war, not to mention achieving Ukraine’s victory.
Commenting on Zelenskyy’s Victory Plan, the White House said that there is no consensus in NATO on Ukraine’s accession to the Alliance. On the other hand it also should be noted that according to French newspaper Le Monde, the Biden administration has no significant objections to inviting Kyiv to join NATO and, should Kamala Harris win the election on 5 November, may begin to take steps in that direction.
After all this, President Zelenskyy visited a number of European countries, including France, Germany and Italy, and tried to convince his European supporters to back his Victory Plan. In some capitals, he was assured of continued and full support – Paris, for example, expressed its openness not only to the plan but also the idea of inviting Ukraine to NATO and, that came very well to Zelenskyy but in general, he was unable to break the scepticism, moreover, some top European politicians made statements making it clear that Ukraine’s NATO membership cannot be on the agenda as the issue risks escalating the war.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was clear to express that he does not support inviting Ukraine into NATO in the near future. Scholz argues that in his decision, he is motivated by the desire to avoid escalation. He also emphasised during a meeting with US President Joe Biden in Berlin, that NATO should not become a party to the war in Ukraine. According to Le Monde, however, the most optimistic sources believe that a change in the United States’ stance could also lead to a change in the course of intransigent Germany.
Interestingly, new Secretary General of NATO Mark Rutte with no hesitation declared that Ukraine will eventually become the Alliance’s 33rd or 34th member without paying any attention to the fact that Germany and the US are not the only countries blocking Ukraine’s invitation to join NATO.
Hungary, Slovakia, Belgium, Slovenia and Spain are also resisting the move, POLITICO claims. It also noted that the Alliance’s key members are concerned about being drawn into a war with Russia. The same day, the Office of the President of Ukraine has denied the information published by POLITICO, adding that ’These rumours are beneficial to those who want to create a false impression that Ukraine’s accession does not have broad support among the Alliance members.’
However, this was not the only thing Ukraine denied. Senior Ukrainian government officials, including Defence Minister Rustem Umierov , stressed that there has not been any proposal from Ukraine’s Western partners to exchange the occupied territories for NATO membership. According to them, the issue of Ukraine’s accession to NATO without the territories temporarily occupied by Russia is not being discussed.
Despite the fact that Olaf Scholz noted that both the US and Germany are united in supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, preventing Russia from subjugating the country by force, it cannot be claimed with full certainty that the idea of NATO membership in exchange for territories was not discussed during the talks between the two leaders.
In recent years, we have all got used to the fact that EU members’ position on Ukraine is far from homogeneous, but disagreements among the bloc’s members have not particularly threatened the security and safety of Europeans. From this perspective, however, the issue of Ukraine’s invitation to NATO has created a new situation, as the different approach of NATO members to this issue – the support of some against the disagreement of others – is creating a rift in a defence community which has so far been united in its understanding that the Alliance represents a guarantee of peace and security.
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