Ukraine is unlikely to avoid territorial concessions while its population has shrunk to 32 million. The question arises: who is responsible for this? Is it the fault of Ukraine’s pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovich who fled the country in 2014 and was found guilty of high treason and sentenced in absentia to 13 years? Or, is it the responsibility of the pro-Western Petro Poroshenko, also charged with high treason and sanctioned by his successor, also Western-oriented Volodymyr Zelenskyy – a president who will surely be prosecuted one day. Some of the speeches at the recent Munich Security Conference has left no doubt regarding this issue.
Over the past decade, the activities of these presidents have shaped Ukraine’s image in the world. While experts often attribute a number of major political and economic failures to these Ukrainian presidents, strangely enough, shrinking population and territorial losses are not considered their biggest sins, although these two issues are among the worst losses to a nation.
Ukraine’s population has declined from 52 million in 1991 to 32 million by the end of 2024, mainly due to migration and the ongoing war, Deputy Prime Minister – Minister for National Unity of Ukraine Oleksii Chernyshov has said in an interview with Die Welt.
During these three decades, several stages can be distinguished in this process, the Ukrainian deputy PM explained. ’Ukraine had a population of 52 million on the day of its independence in 1991. This number had dropped to 48 million within ten years. By 2014, the population had decreased further to 45 million. The population fell to 42 million after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2015.’, he said. Chernyshov stated that around 5 million people with protected status have left Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, following which Ukraine’s population had dropped to around 32 million by the end of 2024.
Despite the fact that in October 2024, the Ukrainian government approved the Strategy for Demographic Development for the period up to 2040 to address the potential consequences of this crisis, the decline of Ukraine’s population is likely to continue. According to estimates by the Institute of Demography and Social Quality of Life at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ukraine’s population may decline to 28.9 million by 2041.
According to the above Strategy, the reasons for demography crisis are the war, low birth rate, migration, high premature mortality, labour market imbalance, and others. The document emphasises that ’Ukraine needs a systemic strategic solution that will minimise demographic risks and mitigate threats, ensure a balanced long-term reproduction of the population, the necessary amount of human capital and the workforce for martial law and post-war economic recovery and the formation of demographic sustainability’.
Empty words, especially in the context of a war-torn country – a country that has suffered territorial losses and may lose even more territory in the future to reach a peace agreement. The whole Strategy is unrealistic.
Three other aspects should be added to all this.
1) Currently, nearly 63,000 people are listed as missing under special circumstances in the Register for Persons Missing, including both civilians and military personnel.
2) In addition, Ukraine has started developing a special military contract to enable the recruitment of people aged 18 to 24 into its armed forces. ’This is for those who want to join up, it is not a mobilisation.’, President Zelenskyy explained in an interview with Reuters. He said that it would be a special contract with many benefits and high monetary provision. These words belong to Ukraine’s President, a man who has never served a day in the Armed Forces of Ukraine but would be ready to sacrifice the youth of Ukraine to keep his power for a few more months.
3) As US President Donald Trump recently said, the number of Ukrainians killed during the three years of war is about 800,000.
Considering these issues, speaking about Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s responsibility seems unavoidable. That responsibility, obviously, is not the subject of an investigation at the moment, but once the postponed presidential elections in Ukraine are held and the country elects a new president, this issue – accountability – will most likely be one of the first points on the agenda of whoever becomes the next president of Ukraine after Zelenskyy.
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