French President Emmanuel Macron has had a rather short way to become a European leader, offering not only a French nuclear shield for the EU against Russia, but also his own leading role in escorting Ukraine to peace and also French peacekeeping forces to maintain peace in EU’s likely new member state. This path – not coincidentally – fully overlaps with the period of the Russia-Ukraine war. The question is whether Macron’s support for Ukraine is a selfless move, or is it just a pretext to implement the ReArm Europe plan, in which he wants French defence companies to take the lead?
’We must respect those who are fighting,’ Macron commented on the argument that broke out between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance at the White House 28 February, after which Zelenskyy left the White House ahead of schedule, leaving the Minerals Agreement unsigned. Macron also urged Europeans to be ‘more united and stronger than ever and to abandon a happy vassal dependence’ on the United States at a time when talks on Ukraine are being accelerated on both sides of the Atlantic.
It should be noted that at the meeting with Macron on 24 February, US President Donald Trump expressed his support to deploy European peacekeeping forces to Ukraine to maintain a potential ceasefire, moreover, he did not exclude the possibility of some US contribution to them. (According to a recent survey, 64 % of French citizens are in favour of continuing aid to Ukraine and sending peacekeepers after the end of hostilities.)
Alongside the diplomatic negotiations, there has also been an upsurge in European defence and France is seeking to play a leading role in the EU in this regard.
As part of this effort, on 5 March, Emmanuel Macron delivered an address to the nation. Given the importance of the speech, it can be called historic. ‘We must admit that a new era is beginning. (…) Our security is also under threat.’, he said. ‘The Russian threat goes beyond Ukraine, it concerns the whole of Europe, including you and me. Russia has already turned the Ukrainian conflict into a global one.’ (…) In fact, Russia is testing us, testing the limits of what is acceptable to us. This is happening in the air, at sea, in space and on our screens. Its willingness to use aggression seems to have no limits.’ he continued. ‘Peace at any cost under Russian dictatorship is impossible. Ukraine’s surrender is not peace. The collapse of Ukraine is not peace. Nor is a ceasefire, which is too fragile, peace.’, Macron stressed.
Given the importance of the topic, it is worth bringing additional quotes from the speech.
‘We need to prepare Ukraine to guarantee that once the peace is concluded, it will not be invaded again by Russia. This will undoubtedly require long-term support for the Ukrainian army. This may also include the need to deploy a European contingent. This does not mean that these soldiers will fight today or at the frontline. Instead, they would be there to guarantee any peace in Ukraine once it had been signed.’- Macron argued.
Also as part of Macron’s quest for European leadership, chiefs of staff from over 30 nations participated in the negotiations to create an international security force for Ukraine, which France called for on 11 March. At the meeting, military officials were presented with France and the United Kingdom’s plan to create ’a coalition of nations able and willing to protect Ukraine’ in the event of a possible ceasefire.
As for a possible solution to the Russia-Ukraine war, Macron has repeatedly stressed he believed that his idea of a partial truce could become the basis for further negotiations on a broader agreement and allow for a test of Moscow’s willingness to implement the agreements. France suggests partial one-month truce between Russia and Ukraine | Ukraine | The Guardian ’This ceasefire in the sky, at sea and on energy infrastructure will demonstrate Vladimir Putin’s goodwill when he agrees to such a truce. Then real peace negotiations can begin.’, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said, particularly emphasising Macron’s idea.
Before the talks in Saudi Arabia, the Financial Times reported that, to meet US demands, Kyiv intended to propose a partial ceasefire, including long-range strikes on Russia and military operations in the Black Sea. According to sources of the FT, in this way, Ukraine tried to convince the US to resume intelligence and military support.
And who first proposed the idea of a partial ceasefire and sending European peacekeepers to Ukraine…?
In light of all this, it is not at all surprising that during the talks in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine said that it is willing to implement a 30-day ceasefire, if Russia also accepts it. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that this would apply ’not only with regard to missiles, drones and bombs, not only in the Black Sea but also along the entire frontline.’ A joint Ukraine-US statement has also indicated that Washington is lifting its pause in military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
And regardless of whether the 30-day ceasefire eventually takes place or not, the French President has not stop but has took another step towards rearming Europe to support Ukraine.
Following the abovementioned meeting of 34 army chiefs from NATO countries, defence ministers from five European countries – UK, France, Germany, Italy and Poland – gathered in Paris on 12 March and pledged to take concrete steps to strengthen European defence and provide security guarantees to Ukraine. Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umierov had been invited to the first meeting to discuss support for Ukraine, while a second meeting focused on enhancing European defence capabilities.
At the official opening ceremony of the the Paris Defence and Strategy Forum, French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu stated that a well-armed Ukraine will be an important part of Europe’s future security architecture. He said that Europe should reject calls for the demilitarisation of Ukraine. He also said that France would refuse any demilitarisation of the Ukrainian army. In addition, he repeated Macron’s words that Europe has entered into ’a new period’ in its history, markedly different from both the Cold War and ’the period of peace dividends’, when multiple world powers jostled for influence.
Three remarks need to be added to these developments.
1) Although Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha emphasised that an interim ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian war does not mean a frozen conflict, to be honest, this situation could still turn into something like that.
2) Ukraine’s partners from Europe, under the leadership of Emmanuel Macron, continue efforts to strengthen the Ukrainian military and back Ukraine with security guarantees. As far as Ukraine and Zelenskyy are concerned, they are of course grateful for any support, at the same time it is uneasy to forgive Kyiv for allowing being used to create a new European rift.
3) But, what exactly is the motive for European leaders to combine the idea of strengthening European defence with the issue of continued military support for Ukraine? Are they unaware that Emmanuel Macron only wants to strengthen the French defence industry?!
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