After that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump stated at a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Emmanuel Macron in Paris on 7 December that Europe would have to shoulder the primary burden of supporting Ukraine and managing a future ceasefire, various opinions have been expressed by European leaders on a potential European peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.
• ’Peace talks on the war in Ukraine may begin as early as this winter’, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said 10 December adding that Warsaw would play an active role in any negotiations when it assumes the EU’s rotating presidency on 1 January.
• The Elysee presidential office later said in a statement that French President Emmanuel Macron and Tusk on 12 December will discuss ’the issue of European support for Ukraine in a new transatlantic context, and ahead of the Polish Presidency of the Council of the European Union in the first half of 2025.’
• On 11 December, POLITICO reported about this issue. Responding to a report by the Polish news outlet Rzeczpospolita regarding discussions of a potential 40,000-strong peacekeeping mission for Ukraine, composed of troops from other countries, an EU diplomat said: ’It is true.’ According to POLITICO, the diplomat did not specify which countries might provide troops if such a peacekeeping mission were to be deployed.
• ’So far, Poland has ruled out the possibility of sending and deploying its military to Ukraine. However, this decision may be revised in the future’, Polish Defence minister Wladislaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said on 22 December.
• ’Everything that serves peace in the future would be supported by the German side with every effort,’ German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said when asked about a possible German role in any peacekeeping force. However, it also should be added that Berlin’s official position has been resistant to any deployment plan.
• Media reports suggested that Western leaders are set to discuss possible formats for ending the war and the potential establishment of a European peacekeeping mission in Ukraine during a meeting in Brussels on 18-19 December. According to some media information, Emmanuel Macron was about to raise the issue of deploying a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire and peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia.
• Commenting on these reports, on 16 December, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas, has stated that peace must first be achieved before talking about sending peacekeepers to Ukraine, emphasising that Russia is not ready for such a development.
• Several media sources confirmed that during the meetings in Brussels, the leaders did really discuss security guarantees for Ukraine. After the Brussels summit, Heorhii Tykhyi, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry acknowledged that Zelenskyy expressed his support for Macron’s proposal regarding the potential deployment of a Western allied military contingent in Ukraine as part of security guarantees. ’Indeed, in addition to France, several other countries have expressed their readiness to take such a step,’ Tykhyi said.
• Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp has said that it was too early to speculate on a potential peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. Nevertheless, he noted that Ukraine’s readiness for a diplomatic settlement with Russia is important.
• Finnish President Alexander Stubb has stressed the need for a balanced approach to the idea of a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine. He was warning ’against jumping the gun as European leaders discuss a possible peacekeeping operation in Ukraine after peace is achieved.’ Stubb noted that the operation would require UN authorisation. In addition, there is no peace at the moment, and Stubb believes that above all, Ukraine needs weapons.
• On 29 December, German chancellor candidate and chairman of the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Friedrich Merz, has stated that Germany’s participation in peacekeeping operations requires a mandate that is in line with international law. However, the key factor is Russia’s consent, without which, in his opinion, such missions would not be effective and could exacerbate the situation.
It is worth noting that the idea of deploying European troops in Ukraine was first publicly raised by French President Emmanuel Macron in early 2024. At the time, Macron’s idea provoked strong reactions across Europe and seemed to have little support. But in a few months, this mainly negative European attitude seems to have changed. Although there are still many who oppose the idea, there is clear support for the idea in Poland. In addition, Trump’s return to the White House definitely puts the debate on this issue in the spotlight, both at EU and national level.
According to some sources of The Wall Street Journal, in Paris Trump said that Europe should play the main role in defending and supporting Ukraine and that he wanted European troops present in Ukraine to monitor a ceasefire. He hasn’t ruled out U.S. support for the arrangement, although no U.S. troops would be involved, the WSJ reported.
’The discussions over placing European troops on the ground in Ukraine are still at an early stage, with several unresolved questions, including which European countries would be involved, the number of troops, Washington’s role in supporting the arrangement and whether Russia would accept a deal involving troops from NATO countries. However, what started as quiet discussions between British and French officials about the possibility have broadened to include Trump, Zelensky and other European governments, according to people briefed on discussions’, the WSJ says.
Some leaders and experts believe that any such step should be taken by NATO while others are convinced that it is irresponsible to even talk about a European peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. Most European leaders believe that sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine is out of the question at the moment.
NATO, not individual countries must play a key role here – this is a position, shared by many. Others argue that any European troops on Ukrainian territory would be part of a special peacekeeping or ceasefire monitoring force and should not be a NATO operation.
Now let us see what is know about Ukraine’s stance on peacekeepers.
Frankly speaking, not too much.
Despite Zelenskyy told reporters that they ’can think and work on’ Macron’s proposal, some warn that putting foreign peacekeepers into Ukraine could allay Kyiv’s fears that its allies would not step up if Putin resumes the war. Without NATO membership, Kyiv worries that any peace agreement would simply allow Russia to catch its breath and then attack again once it has rebuilt its military. Zelenskyy has repeatedly emphasised that NATO membership remains the only truly effective security guarantee for Ukraine and the other options are merely interim measures. According to him, the mere presence of peacekeepers alone would not suffice as a security guarantee.
It is clear that the idea of a potential European peacekeeping mission in Ukraine still raises many doubts. European governments are likely to be wary about a force that would put them in a position of having to resist a Russian breach of a ceasefire. It is worth closely examining how the debate on this very sensitive issue will develop, especially in light of the fact that Poland has taken over the EU’s rotating presidency on 1 January.
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