In recent months, there have been some very interesting developments in the eastern part of the European Union. Ukraine has been reported to be behind certain developments in Poland, Romania (indirectly), Slovakia and Hungary. As all four countries are members of the EU and NATO, as well as neighbours of Ukraine, this is an issue worth carefully examining.
Whereas Poland and Romania have been Ukraine’s steadfastest supporters since the beginning of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, pro-peace Hungary has been opposed to providing Ukraine with weapons. Last year, the Slovak PM appeared in the spotlight twice: once having stated that Ukraine would definitely not be a NATO member as long as he was prime minister of Slovakia, and later when announced that he would attend Victory Day parade in Moscow on 9 May. Both Hungary and Slovakia criticised Ukraine’s decision to stop transiting Russian gas from the beginning of 2025.
It should also be added that all the events in question surprisingly had a national security dimension.
Poland
In an interview with Financial Times, Polish President Andrzej Duda has recently said that the end of Russia’s war against Ukraine could lead to a surge in international organised crime adding that many soldiers will return from combat with mental problems which is a potential threat to European security.
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry, in its response on 3 February pointed out that there has been no substantial increase in crime or threats to Poland or Europe since 2014, despite hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians having gone through war. In addition, the MFA of Ukraine said that they disagree with the presentation of Ukrainian soldiers, who are now risking their lives to defend Europe from the Russian invasion, as a potential threat to European security.
Romania
Not only Romania, but the whole EU was shocked by the annulation of the results of the first round of the 2024 presidential elections in Romania due to alleged meddling by Russia. The far-right presidential candidate, Călin Georgescu who, allegedly ran his campaign and won the first round thanks to Russian backing, has called Ukraine a fictitious state and said that its division between neighbouring states is inevitable.
Reacting to such statements, Ukrainian MFA said that this is a manifestation of extreme disrespect for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.
Romanian Foreign Ministry reaffirmed its support for Ukraine after Georgescu’s statement. ’Romanian MFA strongly reiterates steadfast position in support of the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders,’ the statement says. Bucharest clarified that Romania’s position is based on international law, national interests, and long-term foreign policy.
Slovakia
In early December, Slovakia expelled two Ukrainians suspected of monitoring energy infrastructure targets including along a major pipeline carrying gas from Ukraine. ’Members of the security and intelligence forces of the Slovak Republic were able to dismantle a rogue cell that posed a potential risk to our security,’ Slovak Interior Minister said.
Slovakia made several anti-Ukrainian statements following the expiration of the gas transit contract between Ukraine and Russia on 1 January. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico harshly criticised Ukraine as an unreliable partner and said he is tired of President Zelenskyy travelling around Europe begging and blackmailing others. Fico accuses Zelensky of ‘begging’ and ‘blackmailing’ European leaders for support
In 2025, remarkable spy stories in Slovakia have continued. Prime Minister Robert Fico claimed that Ukraine was involved in anti-government protests in Bratislava, according to a report by the Slovak Intelligence Service. Following this statement, a Ukrainian citizen was detained on 30 January on suspicion of involvement in a planned coup. Ukrainian detained in Slovakia over alleged coup plot, media reports
Some days later, a Ukrainian died in Slovakia after he was beaten while in police custody. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha expressed his shock over the incident. ’We cannot exclude ethnic hatred as one of the reasons for this crime. Under my directions, our embassy has already contacted the Slovak police and ombudsman.’, he added.
Hungary
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has criticised Ukraine’s decision to stop transiting Russian gas from the beginning of 2025 saying that such a move threatens his country’s energy security.
According to the information received by the Hungarian special services in early February, Ukraine is launching a campaign to discredit Hungary’s PM, the stated goal of which is ’to undermine the international perception of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and weaken Hungary’s ability to defend its interests’. According to the Hungarian authorities, Ukraine has spent considerable money on spreading false materials through the media.
Geopolitical outlook
As for the developments in the individual countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the statements made by the leaders of these counties separately, they would likely not be sufficient to have any impact on the issue of Ukraine. However, given the excellent relations some prime ministers have with U.S. President Donald Trump, it is certainly worth paying attention to the region as a whole. In light of developments in the CEE region over the past few months, the Ukrainian leadership in Kyiv is likely to have come to the same conclusion.
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