Is it time to abandon the idea of a peaceful western Ukraine?
Given that the peaceful historic Western Ukrainian city of Lviv has become one of the most vulnerable territories affected by the Russia-Ukraine war, largely as a result of the wrong decisions by the government in Kyiv, this issue is very timely.
Although western Ukraine has so far more or less escaped devastating Russian attacks, many forms of aggression seem to have become commonplace in Lviv Region.
Proud Lviv has already been hit by several major Russian missile strikes on its civilian and critical infrastructure, resulting in numerous human losses and injuries. In addition, many local men have lost their lives on the front lines. But Lviv is still trying to survive, moreover, become an important part of the Ukrainian self-defence: this important hinterland not only plays a significant role in the functioning of the state, but has also become a safe haven for internal refugees.
A dramatic change in the athmosphere of this region may be triggered by the tragic incident of killing Ukraine’s best-known politicians and a hero of the Maidan in Lviv.
Andrii Parubii, a member and former speaker of the Ukrainian parliament (Verkhovna Rada) was murdered in Lviv on 30 August. An unknown man fired several shots at him, killing him instantly. The attacker fled the scene. A special police operation codenamed Siren has been launched in the city to locate and apprehend the murderer. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the murder of the politician was carefully planned. 1 September a suspect – a 52-year-old Lviv resident whose son went missing in 2023 on the Bakhmut front – was detained. He confessed during initial questioning and disclosed his contact with Russia.
Andrii Parubii was born in 1971 in Lviv Oblast. He graduated from the Faculty of History at Ivan Franko National University of Lviv and completed postgraduate studies at Lviv Polytechnic National University, specialising in political science and sociology. In 1990, he became a member of Lviv Oblast Council. In 1991, together with Oleh Tiahnybok, he founded the Social-National Party of Ukraine. In 2013-14, Parubii served as the commander of the Self-Defence of the Maidan. He was sanctioned by Russia in 2018. In 2023, the Russian authorities issued an arrest warrant against him.
The situation in Lviv following the assassination paints a clinical picture of Ukraine as a whole. This picture indicates that the brutality of the war may slowly spill over to the hitherto peaceful western Ukraine, which has been a refuge for hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons over the past four years.
The deterioration of the situation in Lviv is primary due to the fact that both the Ukrainian leadership and its Western supporters try to turn the city into a ’second Kyiv,’ thereby jeopardizing the safety of refugees who have resettled there.
In doing so, they have turned Lviv Region into a target for major Russian attacks: it has been under attack by drones and cruise missiles several times. One of the most devastating strikes was carried out by Russia against Ukraine on the night of 28-29 June, when the Russians targeted critical infrastructure in Lviv Oblast during a combined attack. However, that time, despite the complexity of this nighttime combined attack, not a single person was affected and no civilian buildings were damaged in Lviv.
On 12 July, inhabitants of Lviv were not so lucky: as a result of Russia’s night-time shelling of the city, many people sought medical treatment. In addition, a number of buildings were severely damaged.
When European foreign ministers met in Lviv on 9 May, did they think about the potential consequences of their meeting in the city? Preoccupied with adopting a joint statement welcoming the completion of technical work on draft legal instruments required to establish a Special Tribunal for the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine within the Council of Europe, did they consider the possibility that their presence and speeches could cause further suffering to Lviv and peaceful local residents? Did Kaja Kallas, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, calculate on the possibility of undermining peace when she arrived in Lviv to attend this meeting?
Finally, did President Zelenskyy take into consideration the possibility that by giving focus to western Ukraine, he would in fact turn this part of the country into a target?
As Lviv Region has already found itself in the crosshairs of Russian attacks, the rest of western Ukraine should also prepare for the worst, including Chernivtsi Region and Transcarpathia as well, where an American industrial facility was recently hit by a Russian missile strike. Those people who live there, can thank Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Western European supporters for that.
Who needs enemies with friends like these?
Leave a Reply