Ukraine 2021: Preparing for the Unavoidable?

At the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022 it is time to review the most memorable events of our troubled times.

In 2021, Ukraine had to realize that the good old ’sleeping threat’ from the side of Moscow which has been constantly hanging over Ukraine in recent years has become actual and concrete. This year, Kyiv also realized that Ukraine stands alone and has to face this threat on its own, without allied fellows in arms.

The threat in 2021 which reached for Ukraine in several shock waves is combined and consists of at least the following elements:

· Attracting public attention by polarizing and intensifying debates about identity, cultural and religious issues, national ethnics, etc. Providing passports of Russia to the citizens of the so-called DNR and LNR on the grounds that these people are’ours’.

· Attacks and attempted attacks on critical infrastructure and the systems of other important bodies’.

· Provoking a migration crisis on the border of Ukraine with Belarus.

· Creating energy shortage — North Stream 2 pipeline, increasing of energy prices, causing problems of gas, electric energy and coal supply.

· Belarus’ involvement in the crisis between Ukraine and the RF — By de facto military unification, Belarus has become a kind of military build-up zone for the Russian forces.

· Concentration of troops on the borders of Ukraine.

· An attempt to involve NATO in the conflict to ensure a compromise on the part of the North Atlantic Alliance.

As it can be clearly seen from the above list, Moscow is gradually going through various phases of hybrid warfare (at the same time creating an artificial horizon for Ukraine not to see farther than the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine), and is slowly beginning to move beyond such a framework, while already crossing the generally accepted red lines. With military concentration near the Ukrainian borders and the attempt to involve NATO in the conflict between the RF and Ukraine, Russia is moving towards the indication of a real military threat. It should be emphasized that springing of the Russian forces to the attack is not obvious at all.

And now let’s see how Ukraine responded to Russia’s threats!

· Senseless ’Ukrainization’.

· Prohibition of TV channels and social media outlets associated with Russian propaganda and / or ’problematic’ oligarchs.

· Adoption the Law on the Basics of National Resistance.

· Codification of the Law on Oligarchs, ignoring the fact that removal of one oligarch from the system may not lead to the collapse of the economy, but displacement of two tycoons can cause a real bankruptcy in Ukraine, because these oligarchs mean the main pillars of Ukraine’s economy.

· Endless talks with the EU, NATO, U.S. — Declarations, declarations, declarations…

· Coal from the U.S, gas and energy from Europe — it works as long as they help, but it cannot last forever.

· Acquisition of weapons, emphasizing that Ukraine as a sovereign state has the right to defend itself.

· Finally, President Zelenskiy’s statement that he is ready to hold direct talks with President Putin.

If we compare this list with the above one which summarizes the Russian measures, it is not difficult to come to the conclusion that unfortunately, with its steps, Kyiv only runs after Moscow, and each of Ukraine’s steps is just a reaction to the actions of Russia. (There is nothing new in this; Kyiv usually behaves like this, presenting surprises only at rare occasions.) Among the listed Ukrainian measures it is impossible to find an innovative one or at least one reflecting an original idea that could be directed as a preventive action against a future and perceived Russian threat.

But the most interesting of all the steps is the statement of Ze to Biden about his readiness to enter into direct negotiations with Vladimir Vladimirovich. This reveals the best that this year, for Zelenskiy, was really just a preparation for the unavoidable. It is very likely that he would have got at the same point even without the above steps and measures, all sorts of tricks and an imaginary coup, but in this case we had had less opportunity to admire him and his magnificent dramatic skills on Facebook and Twitter. Borrowing the words of a Portuguese proverb, ’God writes straight with crooked lines’.

Allow me to finish this ’dramatic season’ (2021) and start a new one (2022) as it is accustomed in theatres: ’Bravo, Ze!’ But you would better not expect a standing ovation…!