Where Are the Impact Assessments?
Analyzing the situation in connection with the oil embargo, it is necessary to pay attention to Ukraine’s behavior and position. Being a Soviet legacy, Ukraine controls several gas and oil pipelines which play an important role in European transit. It is important to note that Russia has not suspended deliveries through Ukraine even in wartime, which allows Ukraine, as a transit country, to receive a transit fee for this service. All this gives the impression that everything is alright, at least in the field of big business.
Considering the issue of transition to purchasing non-Russian oil, I agree with the point of view of those EU member states, including Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria which asked for a longer transition period to phase out Russian oil.
Taking into account the potential economic and political consequences of such steps, as the total refusal of Russian oil, I believe that the EU member states should have been given a much longer transition period so that they can get rid of Russian energy resources, if they want. In addition, I think it extremely important for every government to have reliable and accurate information about its future non-Russian energy supplies, including countries of origin, transit countries, prices, routes, guarantees of security of supplies, etc.
I may be wrong, and these are less important questions, which are not worth wasting a word on, or I may have chosen the wrong sources to obtain relevant data, but I could not find any reliable piece of information about the details of the current European energy revolution. Similarly, I have not found an available official study explaining in plain language the possible effects of anti-Russian sanctions, including the oil embargo, to European citizens.
And all this has led to an alarming recognition that, firstly, it is really scary to me to imagine that a document with all aspects of the security of energy supply for the whole Europe may already exist on paper somewhere in Brussels, and the price I will pay for gas and gasoline next year or maybe next month will be determined by the steps of Brussels, which are based on rough sketch Excel spreadsheets.
Secondly, I am afraid that even if an impact assessment was conducted by the EU, it is surely not thorough enough to cover the possible negative impacts resulted from the unexpected actions of Ukraine.
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