When in mid-July the Kremlin announced the suspension of the Grain Deal, which ensured the safe transportation of grain from Ukrainian Black Sea ports, a tsunami of negative comments hit Russia.
World leaders have immediately condemned Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, saying, that ’Russians neglect the needs of people worldwide’. According to a White House official, ’Russia’s decision will worsen food security and harm millions of people around the world.’ (According to statistics, more than 32 million tons of Ukrainian foodstuffs have been delivered to world markets, since the beginning of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.)
According to Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, while Russia is destroying the Black Sea Grain Initiative, striking at Ukrainian ports and trying to make money from rising food prices, Ukraine and the EU should make every effort to facilitate food exports from Ukraine, in particular by maximising the capacity of alternative transport corridors, the Solidarity Roads. Statements about any restrictions are unacceptable, he added, referring to Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawieczki who threatened not to open the border with Ukraine for grain products after 15 September.
In connection with the above incident, it should be noted that the failure of the Black Sea Grain Agreement was a direct consequence of Ukraine’s attack on the Crimean Bridge. Kyiv openly announced that the bridge was ’unnecessary for Ukraine’, that’s why decided to ruin it.
In association with this attack, here are my theses:
1.) When planning an attack on the Crimean bridge, the military leadership of Kyiv had to take into account the likelihood that Russia would take retaliatory steps in response to the bombing of the bridge. In order to give Ukraine a proportionate response, Russia had a wide range of possible options, from a missile strike on Odessa to the suspension of the Grain Deal. There were no doubts concerning the possible scenarios.
2.) When I say that the Ukrainian military leadership planned this or that, what I really mean is that ’the Ukrainian military leadership planned something, based on intelligence and instructions received from their American counterparts’.
Accordingly, as for the attack on the Kerch Bridge, it is quite obvious that it was preceded by American-Ukrainian consultations, during which the possibility of Russia’s withdrawal from the Grain Deal was obviously touched upon. Did Ukrainian and US military commanders and politicians express their concern about the starving people of Africa at that time? I don’t know, but this issue was probably not a priority one on the agenda of those discussions. (America, most likely believed that it would solve the issue later, one way or another, maybe, involving Turkey; as for Ukraine, it is unlikely that it turned any attention to this question, which is, considering its war psychosis, quite understandable.)
3.) It is clear that the US administration believes that Russia, whose actual military, economic and other weaknesses have been clearly revealed as a result of the war against Ukraine, can now be overcome. (For further details, I recommend to read the analysis by CIA Director William Burnes published in The Washington Post on July 7, 2023.)
If one follows the US line of argument, it is easy to come to the conclusion that the war in Ukraine must be escalated in order to completely paralyse Russia. The explosions on the Kerch Bridge have undoubtedly served this very purpose in the past and will continue to do so in the future. Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia in 2022, is obviously doing its best to take revenge for Putin’s unforgivable sins.
Ultimately, who is responsible for the fact that the Black Sea Grain Deal has practically ceased to be in effect?
The only straight answer can be that all this is the joint responsibility of Russia, Ukraine and the US, which is supporting Ukraine both with arms and intelligence, and also with great ideas. In the light of this, it is unfair of Ukraine to disclaim all responsibility, and hold solely Moscow responsible for the fact that the world is once again on the brink of a food crisis. When Kyiv attacked the Crimean Bridge, it perfectly understood what consequences it would be and counted on the possibility of termination of the Grain Initiative by Russia. So, from this point of view, Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Deal can be considered as an act triggered by the deliberate damaging of the Crimean Bridge by Ukraine. Like it not, on behalf of Ukraine, Russia’s withdrawal from the grain agreement was a pre-calculated and anticipated risk.
Finally, on behalf of both sides of the war, I would like to express my sympathy to those countries where Ukrainian grain will not arrive this summer. I am afraid, that despite all dramatic spectacles which are now played on various stages of world politics, they are not the ones in focus of the attention right now. The fact that Mr Putin, as an act of despair, recently organised Russia-Africa Summit, does not mean or change anything. Sadly, grain appears to be just one valuable toy in the toolkit of the great powers.
Sources:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/black-sea-grain-deal-expire-monday-if-russia-quits-2023-07-17/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/crimea-bridge-key-russian-supply-line-damaged-two-dead-reports-blasts-2023-07-17/
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230717-%F0%9F%94%B4-live-ukraine-grain-deal-in-peril-crimea-bridge-traffic-halted-amid-reports-of-blasts
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